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Predicting the Future: January and COVID?
As I prepare and scramble for “time off” over the holiday, I find myself wondering how much of life will jumpstart again in January.
I have a lot of projects on the horizon but keep wondering… How do I predict what’s to come in the pandemic, and how do I not take on too much too fast?
I worry that “best set plans” for January will crumble if pandemic rules shift or change, as they have done here in recent weeks. But, of course, as many are projecting and posting, the hope for a vaccine is also not too far away.
If you had to GUESS how safe things will be in the first few months of 2020, what would you predict?
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3 Replies
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That is very simple.
Locally in the Netherlands the prediction is unsafe at least until end of January. Until then there is even an official lockdown due to the rising number of covid infections we experienced since October. There were stricter rules since September and they seemed to bring the figures down at first, but then they started to rise again because people didn’t comply well enough. Currently we measure more than 10.000 new infections every day and hospitals are filling up.
As a reaction to that, now since a week all shops are closed except for food and life necessities, schools and universities are only providing online education, daycare centers are only open for children of parents with essential occupations, everyone is advised to work from home as much as possible, bars and restaurants are closed, hotels are still open but not the kitchen, traveling abroad for tourism is not possible. People are only allowed to entertain 2 visitors per day (children under 12 not counted), 3 on Christmas eve.
Hospitals are reaching their limits both regarding ICU and normal covid care. Hospital care for other than covid cases is rapidly being downscaled except for emergencies. Operating theatres are being closed and used as ICU. Surgery and treatments that can wait are postponed. This will be the case at least until 19th of January and probably even longer, until the hospitals are getting back to normal again. We will start vaccination second week of January, starting with the Pfizer vaccine. The prediction is that vaccination will bring down deaths quite rapidly, but not the spreading of the virus for some time longer.
Earlier this year on the third of March I remember talking to my cf nurse and I told her that I hoped that things would be back to normal in a year. She was appalled by that prediction and hoped it would be much sooner. As things stand now, I think we might need another year on top of that. Worldwide, testing vaccines on children has yet to start, and most probably this means that children will be going to school in September without being vaccinated. As long as the virus can circulate in such a large group, society as a whole will not be safe. I think it will take this entire year, if all goes well, to vaccinate the entire Dutch population (or those that are willing to). Then we will have to wait and see how the vaccines hold up in practice and hope that no mutations of the virus will show up that are not covered in the current vaccines.
So I don’t make any plans for January other than my simple method of living that has never failed me so far:
1. breath in
2. breath out
3. repeat.
When hungry, I eat. When thirsty, I drink. When tired, I sleep. When awake always I love and laugh, mostly about myself.To end with a positive note: I am quite sure that from now on, things will only go up hill. Slowly, but definitely. Hold on, be patient and take care!
Best wishes for all of you from me and Debbie from The Netherlands
Paul -
We, in Melbourne, Australia, have been free of COVID for the last 50 days. But an outbreak in Sydney, 1000km north of us has put the cat amongst the pigeons and is causing much concern. We have the benefit in Australia of being able to isolate and test very effectively to curtail the virus. This recent outbreak seems to have been brought in from the US by an airline crew.
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My prediction is that things will be a bit worse than they are now. Which I hate saying, but I think it’s the reality for my area. Our case counts continue to rise and too many people in my state continue to defy health guidelines, refuse to wear masks, and proceed with their large holiday gatherings. Restaurants are still serving customers indoors. Our local movie theater is open (with limited capacity, but still… ugh). For the most part, people are living life as they normally would in my little town.
I fear that we’ll see another spike after the holidays and into January/February. After which I hope things will progress in the right direction. Vaccines are a slice of hope, but given the amount of vaccine hesitancy in our country, and the additional hesitancy about this vaccine in particular, plus the things Paul mentioned (limited quantity, children unable to be vaccinated), I think we still have several difficult months ahead of us.
I hate sounding so negative about it all! I remain hopeful and look forward to things getting better. I know they will, but it’ll take time.
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